/PRNewswire/ Boston, Nov. 20, 2023 -- As the world goes truly 3D with computing, spatial computing promises to revolutionize our interaction with our devices, but early signs of change are already in the process. While Apple's upcoming Vision Pro is bringing new excitement to the space, there are already a number of VR (Virtual Reality) headsets from companies like Meta, Sony, and Pico that have sold millions of units, while AR (Augmented Reality) glasses from companies like Microsoft, Vuzix, and others have become increasingly popular in the industry.
It is the belief of IDTechEx that two important narratives will unfold within the XR market over the next decade in light of the events that occurred in 2023: virtual reality is expected to gain traction over the next decade as it becomes more like "real reality", and the ultimate goal for Big Tech firms involved in XR is to secure their place in a market of AR devices that will replace smartphones in the future.
IDTechEx's analysis of events in 2023 led it to identify two important narratives it anticipates for the XR market during the next decade: virtual reality's impact will broaden as it feels closer to "real reality", and for Big Tech firms involved in XR, their ultimate goal will be to establish themselves in a future market of AR devices that will replace smartphones in the coming years.
Enhancing the immersive experience of VR
Meta announced its latest prototype VR headset, the Butterscotch, in August 2023. This demonstrated solutions to several issues holding back VR from feeling real, giving a glimpse of the experiences these devices may offer by the end of the decade and the hardware required to make them possible. Even though Meta is not the only device tackling these problems, this prototype is unique in that it combines solutions in one place.
The first problem is that pixels need to be removed
In terms of the pixel density, Butterscotch's display system approaches retinal resolution, which is the level of pixel density at which most people's eyes are unable to distinguish individual pixels. By doing this, the user will no longer perceive that he or she is looking at a screen, since the visible pixel grid will be able to eliminate the "screen door effect". The Butterscotch VR headset is capable of managing 56 pixels per degree (PPD) across the user's field of view (FoV), which is close to the 60PPD heuristic commonly recommended, although the downside is that the FoV is approximately halved in comparison with most other VR headsets.
The Butterscotch VR headset is capable of managing 56 pixels per degree (PPD) across the user's field of view (FoV), which is close to the 60PPD heuristic commonly recommended, although the downside is that the FoV is approximately halved in comparison with most other VR headsets.
It would be necessary for a production-ready system to have a larger field of view, but for that to happen, we would need incredibly high-resolution screens and massive computing power. Among the solutions employed in the Finnish professional-market VR specialist Varjo's XR-3 headset is the use of a higher resolution foveal microdisplay in the center of the vision, where the eye resolves the greatest amount of detail, and a lower resolution display in the rest of the field.. Despite this, Varjo's image quality is set apart from the rest of the market as a result of the added weight, complexity, and cost associated with what it does
Despite this, Varjo's image quality is set apart from the rest of the market as a result of the added weight, complexity, and cost associated with what it does
Varjo's headsets are priced at the upper end of the market, but it is possible that this approach will trickle down over the next decade as technology matures and becomes more affordable. A simpler approach will probably be a move towards large, but higher pixel density microdisplay technologies in VR, with foveated rendering taking place at the software level, thus saving on computers power, but not on the number of pixels needed for the display.. In the IDTechEx report "Displays for Virtual, Augmented, and Mixed Reality 2024-2034: Forecasts, Technologies, Markets", IDTechEx states that it is expected that OLED-on-silicon displays, which are commonly found on camera viewfinders today, will become the predominant VR display technology in the 2030s, replacing LCD screens, with OLED-on-silicon releases from companies such as BOE setting the stage already in 2023 to become the most prevalent VR display technology.
In the IDTechEx report "Displays for Virtual, Augmented, and Mixed Reality 2024-2034: Forecasts, Technologies, Markets", IDTechEx states that it is expected that OLED-on-silicon displays, which are commonly found on camera viewfinders today, will become the predominant VR display technology in the 2030s, replacing LCD screens, with OLED-on-silicon releases from companies such as BOE setting the stage already in 2023 to become the most prevalent VR display technology.
A second problem is that 3D display systems mess with our heads a lot
Using Butterscotch, you can also correct for the vergence-accommodation conflict, which is caused when there is a mismatch between the fixed focal length of the binocular stereoscopic display system and the varied distance between objects and the viewer (vergence) it simulates by means of parallax.. Due to this conflict, users of XR headsets may experience more motion sickness as a result of this conflict and a decrease in immersion since the eye is missing important clues to determine depth as a result of this conflict. Using IR cameras, Butterscotch solves this problem by tracking where the eyes are looking, tweaking the scene rendering, and, most importantly, adjusting dynamically tunable lenses in order to focus the headset's displays in order to match vergence and accommodation distances.
Using IR cameras, Butterscotch solves this problem by tracking where the eyes are looking, tweaking the scene rendering, and, most importantly, adjusting dynamically tunable lenses in order to focus the headset's displays in order to match vergence and accommodation distances.
As in Butterscotch, the lenses are moved physically by motors in order to vary the focus, but Meta has also demonstrated a geometric phase lens array that could be used in the same way.. Stack these lenses with switchable waveplates and you have an extremely compact, dynamically tunable focal length lens that is dynamically tunable with no moving parts and a near-zero latency: they will switch from a positive diopter to a negative diopter depending on the handedness of circularly polarized light input.. Even though there are still issues with image quality in a commercial headset, it seems more likely that Meta would take this approach in the near future. There is no doubt that these lenses will become a very important technology for the VR market within the next few years, with their commercial introduction likely to occur towards the end of the 2020s according to IDTechEx's report "Optics for Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality 2022-2032: Technologies, Players and Markets".. As has been noted, other players, such as Valve and Apple, have shown interest in the technology through patents and investments, so Meta is hardly the only giant in this field working on this.
As has been noted, other players, such as Valve and Apple, have shown interest in the technology through patents and investments, so Meta is hardly the only giant in this field working on this.
In the year 2034, VR devices will take on a new shape
It is likely that a similar combination of features will be needed to boost immersion and comfort in VR, very similar to those shown off in Butterscotch, which includes further innovations, including dynamic distortion correction based on the headset's eye-tracking capabilities.. When it comes to working with texts over a prolonged period of time, these factors are extremely important to keep in mind, especially as interest develops in the use of VR headsets as a replacement for today's workstations.. There is no doubt that this offers a true opportunity to broaden the utility of VR devices, as well as the size of their market, but getting there is an uphill battle in and of itself. A total of $7 was spent by Meta.The company spent over $7 billion in the first half of 2023 on its spatial computing-focused Reality Labs division - while this investment was not all devoted to the development of VR hardware, it is still indicative of the scale of R&D required to make XR devices an effective replacement for today's computer systems.
The company spent over $7 billion in the first half of 2023 on its spatial computing-focused Reality Labs division - while this investment was not all devoted to the development of VR hardware, it is still indicative of the scale of R&D required to make XR devices an effective replacement for today's computer systems.
The big tech firms are setting the stage for the future of augmented reality
In spite of Meta establishing itself as an early XR hardware player, Apple did not make its first move here until 2023, when it announced the Vision Pro, which was one of the long-awaited moves by the company.. The headset, which IDTechEx classifies as a VR headset with a focus on MR passthrough, is a good looking device, but it is likely that it is just the start of the spatial computing game for Apple in the near future. The endgame prize for Big Tech players in the XR market will likely be to establish see-through AR devices as an eventual replacement for the smartphone, while passthrough MR, where cameras on a VR headset pass a view of the real world to the user, will serve as a useful stepping stone along this path.
The endgame prize for Big Tech players in the XR market will likely be to establish see-through AR devices as an eventual replacement for the smartphone, while passthrough MR, where cameras on a VR headset pass a view of the real world to the user, will serve as a useful stepping stone along this path.
There have been a number of big tech companies investing in AR software content that has been delivered through smartphones for years. Google's ARCore and Apple's ARKit have been significant players in lowering the barriers to development, with Amazon using the latter to develop its earliest AR e-commerce efforts in 2017.. Currently, the majority of the public is likely to have experienced augmented reality or mixed reality experiences on their smartphones, but by building software and content libraries now, we will be able to expand to dedicated AR/MR devices in the future as they become more widely used.
Currently, the majority of the public is likely to have experienced augmented reality or mixed reality experiences on their smartphones, but by building software and content libraries now, we will be able to expand to dedicated AR/MR devices in the future as they become more widely used.
The use of passthrough MR as a stepping stone technology
In 2023, even lower-cost VR devices will be routinely incorporating passthrough MR technology, which will democratize more immersive AR/MR experiences, such as the Pico 4, which includes color passthrough in order to help users find their own position in the room.. It was launched at EUR 429 and is regarded as a close competitor to Meta's Quest 2. Interestingly, Pico is owned by TikTok's parent company ByteDance and is priced at EUR 429.. There appears to be just as much interest in establishing Chinese tech giants as their American counterparts in the area of virtual reality (XR). Described in IDTechEx's report "Virtual Reality & Augmented Reality Headsets 2023-2033: Technologies, Players, and Markets", the report outlines the different approaches being taken by the players here as well as providing a comprehensive look at the XR market in the years to come
Described in IDTechEx's report "Virtual Reality & Augmented Reality Headsets 2023-2033: Technologies, Players, and Markets", the report outlines the different approaches being taken by the players here as well as providing a comprehensive look at the XR market in the years to come
There is no doubt that the passthrough MR technology offers a viable way to deliver captivating MR experiences, but social acceptance is an issue since even the most compact and attractive VR device will always conceal the eyes behind the displays.. In order to address this issue, the Vision Pro headset makes use of an outward-facing display, but even the most refined implementation of this type of system will likely feel, at best, like a significant barrier from the wearer's perspective. It is also important to note that these devices are also fail-deadly and thus could not be worn whilst driving, walking, in industrial settings, etc., as they are effectively blindfolds if something goes wrong with them.
It is also important to note that these devices are also fail-deadly and thus could not be worn whilst driving, walking, in industrial settings, etc., as they are effectively blindfolds if something goes wrong with them.
Unlike these problems, Seethrough AR is free from these flaws, and has the potential to replace smartphones as an all-day wearable access point to computing during the day. Even big players, such as Microsoft, have found it difficult to get the right balance when it comes to this approach, so far. These glasses should leave the eyes open to the real world: the crucial components used to project images to the eyes while keeping this view clear, which are known as optical combiners, have arguably offered the greatest technical challenge to AR success. The report, entitled "Optics for Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality 2022-2032: Technologies, Players and Markets," summarizes the challenges faced by AR.
These glasses should leave the eyes open to the real world: the crucial components used to project images to the eyes while keeping this view clear, which are known as optical combiners, have arguably offered the greatest technical challenge to AR success. The report, entitled "Optics for Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality 2022-2032: Technologies, Players and Markets," summarizes the challenges faced by AR.
It is the optics that offer the greatest roadblock to the development of augmented reality
Until recently, waveguide combiners seemed to be the favored device to deal with this problem since they can offer a relatively wide field of view while looking like normal spectacle lenses. However, these waveguide combiners have proven to be a challenging combiner technology to master. As well as technology companies, social media companies also have an interest in this area, with Apple, Microsoft, and Snap acquiring firms that specialize in waveguide design, among others. One major problem is the lack of optical efficiency (nits out to the eye for lumens in from the display) of many designs, which leads to increased demands for display brightness, and therefore battery capacity, and thus thermal management. In order for wearable AR devices to be more compact and all-day, this problem needs to be solved.
One major problem is the lack of optical efficiency (nits out to the eye for lumens in from the display) of many designs, which leads to increased demands for display brightness, and therefore battery capacity, and thus thermal management. In order for wearable AR devices to be more compact and all-day, this problem needs to be solved.
An increase in the use of more efficient reflective waveguides over their diffractive counterparts, which are dominant today, could be one solution for this problem. However, diffractive waveguide manufacturers counter that reflective waveguides are less manufacturable than diffractive waveguides.. There is a possibility that molded plastic reflective waveguides could be the solution to this (extremely controversial) problem of manufacturability. Additionally, this has the advantage of more reliable physical properties for near-eye use compared to glass substrates, but it has the disadvantage of limiting the field of view (FoV), since this is determined by the refractive index of a waveguide material, and polymers are inferior to glass in this regard
Additionally, this has the advantage of more reliable physical properties for near-eye use compared to glass substrates, but it has the disadvantage of limiting the field of view (FoV), since this is determined by the refractive index of a waveguide material, and polymers are inferior to glass in this regard
AR in 2034: an outlook for the future
As a matter of fact, waveguides are just one of many areas of science and technology that are of concern to Big Tech players with an interest in AR devices, not to mention myriad smaller players as well.. Although the challenges remain significant, there is a big reward at the end: AR devices offer the potential for the most seamless access to digital content yet, and even greater time for gatekeepers who are in charge of distributing it in front of our eyes.. In the year 2034, it is unlikely that most of us will be wearing AR glasses instead of carrying a smartphone, but the early adopters will probably be beginning to make the switch by this time.
In the year 2034, it is unlikely that most of us will be wearing AR glasses instead of carrying a smartphone, but the early adopters will probably be beginning to make the switch by this time.
Insights into the topic further
The IDTechEx XR portfolio contains an in-depth review of the technology, players, and markets behind XR optics, displays, headsets, and accessories, which can be found here.. IDTechEx's report, "Displays for Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality 2024-2034: Forecasts, Technologies, Markets", presents detailed analysis of the spatial computing display landscape, including granular ten-year market forecasts as well as assessments of the potential for success of the technologies covered.. In the report "Optics for Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality: Technologies, Players and Markets" the authors not only forecast the adoption of twenty individual optical technologies, but also the material demands that these technologies will create in the future. In "Virtual Reality & Augmented Reality Headsets 2023-2033: Technologies, Players, and Markets", the report forecasts and predicts the adoption of displays, optics, eye tracking, and haptics, along with headsets and accessories, as well as a data-based analysis of the evolution of XR device specifications and pricing over the past decade.. There are several company profiles presented in these reports based on interviews with key players in the industry, as well as SWOT analysis, readiness level assessments, and much more.
There are several company profiles presented in these reports based on interviews with key players in the industry, as well as SWOT analysis, readiness level assessments, and much more.
This article is taken from "Technology Innovations Outlook 2024-2034", a complimentary magazine of analyst-written articles from IDTechEx that provides insights into a number of areas of technology innovation, assessing the landscape now and giving you a forecast for the next decade based on the current landscape. You can read the full edition of the magazine on the IDTechEx website.
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It is our mission to guide your strategic business decisions through its Research, Subscription, and Consultancy products, enabling you to profit from emerging technologies. For more information, please contact [email protected] or visit www.IDTechEx.com. 
IDTechEx - What it is and how it works
The IDTechEx team guides your strategic business decisions with its Research, Subscription, and Consultancy products, helping you gain a competitive advantage through emerging technologies. For more information please contact [email protected] or visit www.IDTechEx.com.
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